Thursday, February 26, 2009

Kings - Bobcats - Defensive Statistics and Analysis

Overall, this was a tale of two halves defensively. We came out sluggish and slow in the first half (gave up 55 points) and then actually defended pretty well in the second half (gave up 43 points). Unfortunately, our offense was out of synch and this game was uglier than the final score.

For a quick recap, I will be tracking Heavily Contest Shots (HC), Lightly Contested Shots (LC), Altered/Blocked Shots (ABS), Forced Turnovers (FTO), times a player was beaten 1 on 1 into the lane (BL), times a players gets posted up and scored on (PSO), times a player gets posted and the other team gets a clear advantage like a double team (PA), times a player gets posted up and gets a stop (PST) and uncontested shots allowed by the team (TU).

This game I also started tracking pick and roll statistics, although I am not yet convinced that I am doing it effectively. However, I did use three categories Pick and Roll Scored On (PRSO) if the screener or roller scored directly off the pick and roll, Pick and Roll Advantage if the offense gained an advantage on the defense either because the defense had to bring over a third defender or they just switched on D, and finally Pick and Roll Stop (PRS) if they stopped the pick and roll and got back to their men. Pick and Rolls were graded as a tandem event, so both the on the ball defender and the screener’s defender notched a positive or negative stat based on the outcome of the play.

Let’s start with our defensive players of the game.

This was a pretty flawed defensive effort by us. A few of the rotation players nearly warranted the DPG award; however, their performances all had major flaws. So instead I am honoring two players who played a combined 10 minutes, but still played our best defense.

Rashad McCants – Rashad only played 6 minutes, but he was very effective on both sides of the court (we were +13 when he played). Defensively, he altered/blocked 1 shot (Bobcats shot 0-1). The Bobcats tried to drive on him twice with no success as he recorded 2 holds. On top of that McCants was able to force 1 turnover and successfully stopped the Bobcats the one time they tried to post him up. McCants has a reputation for inconsistent defensive efforts, so this may be an aberration, but for one night he was magnificent.

Donte Greene - Last night Donte only played 4 minutes, yet he heavily contested a shot the Bobcats missed, came over on help D and stopped a shot at the hoop that would have been a sure layup, did not get beaten off the dribble once, forced a turnover, successfully defended the post the one time he got posted up and they tried to pick and roll against him twice and both times he showed and got back to his man in time to prevent any advantage from being gained.

He has performed like this in all four games I have tracked. He has a very good combination of length, foot speed, athleticism, fluidity and hops. I know people tend to get fixated on his offensive potential, but I think he has the potential to be a very good defender.



And our defensive goat of the game:

Jason Thompson - A sad two goat awards in a row for one of my favorite Kings. Jason’s effort was there and he was actively trying to contest shots. He altered/blocked 1 shot (0-1), heavily contested 1 more (0-1) and lightly contested 4 more (2-4). Unfortunatley, he also tried to contest 3 more shots and picked up shooting fouls. Also, Jason was our most vulnerable big man on the pick and roll. The Bobcats ran 11 against him and JT was only able to stop 4, while allowing the Bobcats to gain an advantage 5 times and allowing a direct score 2 times. JT also struggled in the post as Boris Diaw repeatedly posted him up and Cats scored in 4 of their 9 post ups against JT, versus 3-13 against the entire rest of the team.


Other notes:

- Our defensive as you might guess was largely predicated on how we were able to pressure the Bobcats shooters. They set a lot of off the ball screens and in the first half we allowed 8 unintentionally, uncontested shots and only altered/blocked 1 and heavily contested 2-3 more. This means the Bobcats were getting a series of lightly contested jumpers and layup, which team’s appear to be hitting at a 55-60% clip against the Lakers and us. In the second half, our defense picked up as we only allowed 6 unintentionally, uncontested shot and we altered/blocked 6 shots and heavily contested 9 shots as a team. If we had hustled like that defensively in the first half, we might have been able to win this game.


- In the pregame, the Kings announcers mentioned that Drew Gooden said before the game he was going to try to play even though he was having trouble moving laterally and had little explosion. Needless to say the stat reflected that. To start with the one positive, Drew did record 2 PST (Stopped both post ups against him) and he forced one turnover. However, the rest is pretty bad. He did not alter/block a single shot, heavily contested one shot (0-1) and lightly contested four others (0-4). Outside of 0 ABS, those are not terrible. Where Gooden really was vulnerable was on the perimeter. Gooden did not record a single hold, yet got beaten off of the dribble 4 times. He was mildly effective against the pick and roll though – out of 13 attempts he stopped 5, allowed an advantage on 7 and only allowed 1 direct score.


- Francisco Garcia had a very mixed game. He was very active and altered/blocked 2 shots (0-2), heavily contested 3 more (0-3) and lightly contested 5 more (3-5). He also forced a turnover. However, he had trouble with Gerald Wallace and was beaten off the dribble/into the lane 3 times (versus only 1 hold) and was scored on 2 of the 5 times he was posted up.


- Spencer Hawes was fairly active but only mildly successful tonight. He altered/blocked 3 shots (0-3), heavily contested 1 (1-1), and lightly contested 3 (2-3). This has been a theme for Hawes. Players seem to be scoring against his contests more than with other players. This may simply be an aberration as I have only been tracking these statistics for four games. However, it will be interesting to see if these number regress to the mean or if there is something about Hawes or how he contests shots that make him less effective at distracting shooters.



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